DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/21 11:02
Corn Higher; Wheat, Soybeans Lower at Midday
Corn trade is firmer at midday, with wheat and soybeans weaker.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 70. The
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude up 0.10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down 10.00.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying to consolidate
the midweek gains into the weekend. Wetter near-term weather may slow harvest
progress in many areas this week, while other areas are moving along quickly.
Ethanol margins remain tight with production likely to fade near term even
after strong runs last week and futures continuing to trend lower, hanging
around 1.25. More exports were booked on the daily wire with 121,700 metric
tons on the daily wire. Corn basis will likely see more pressure harvest here
in the near term. On the December chart, support is at the fresh contract low
printed Tuesday at $3.42 3/4 with the 10-day at $3.53, which we are just above
this morning with the 20-day at $3.57 the next level of resistance.
Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade seeing some
liquidation after the strong midweek gains, with the bulk of the gains still in
place. Meal is $4 to $5 lower, and oil is 15 to 25 lower. Soybean basis remains
historically wide across the belt with storage and shipping concerns continuing
to dominate with more business to South America showing up to feed crushers.
Crush margins remain strong in the near term with 100,000 metric tons of meal
to unknown on the daily wire. Early planting in South America is underway with
conditions on the dry side going in but no major concerns expected for a while.
The Brazil and Argentina currencies remain historically cheap with the real
firming a little midweek. China lowered tariffs on neighboring countries, which
could offer some more workarounds on trade. On the November chart, support is
the 20-day at $8.38 with the 10-day below that at $8.34. Resistance is the
recent high at $8.55.
Wheat trade is 4 to 7 cents lower at midday with spread-unwinding keeping
some pressure on wheat after the midweek gains. The U.S. dollar is at the
bottom of the recent range but firmer this morning. Russia will continue to
work on spring wheat harvest and winter wheat planting with little change in
the weather patterns. Australia looks to continue the recent weather pattern
with more feed grain imports possible. On the December KC chart, we have
support at the 10-day at $5.19, which we moved above Friday with the 20-day at
$5.26 the next round higher.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser. He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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