DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 11:20
Grains Mixed at Midday
Quiet trade at midday with row crops mixed.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher this morning with the Dow up 130 points. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 8 higher. Energies are
lower with crude down $0.15. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are
lower with gold down $5.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday in quiet trade as the market
continues to work around the $3.50 area with trade unable to hold positive
post-report action as harvest expands. Ethanol margins are stable with the
weekly report showing expansion of 52,000 barrels per day, and stocks down
43,000 barrels with ethanol futures edging slightly lower with gasoline demand
backing off. Basis should see harvest pressure, while carry remains at wide
levels. Weather looks to remain open and better this week for drying corn. Corn
moisture has been one of the biggest near term concerns as it has stayed
stubbornly high in some areas. On the December chart support is at the $3.42
1/2 low with resistance at the $3.56 50-day moving average.
Soybean trade is a penny better in quiet midday trade with the market
marking time as harvest expands. Meal is near $1 higher and bean oil is 10
points lower. South American weather forecasts continue to show an uptick in
moisture for northern Brazil in the extended forecast with the wetter areas
drying out. Trade will be watching to see if activity continues to show up on
the daily export reporting system with the rise in prices with nothing
announced in the last two days. On the November chart, trade is above all the
major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 support, with resistance the
recent high at $10.03.
Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade staying in the lower
end of the recent range with selling building during the day session. The
dollar is firmer this morning as it heads towards the recent highs continuing
the pattern of early day strength this week. U.S. exports have been slowed
lately as Black Sea origin continues to dominate. Australia will see more focus
coming forward as well as the growing season progresses with some flood damage
concerns in South America. On the December Kansas City support is the lows at
$4.20 after the 10-day at $4.32 failed to hold which we are testing this
morning with resistance at the 20-day at $4.40.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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